Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Reuters: Global Markets: Rosneft shares soar to new highs, lifting stock indexes

Reuters: Global Markets
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Rosneft shares soar to new highs, lifting stock indexes
Oct 24th 2012, 12:30

The company logo at a Rosneft petrol station in St.Petersburg October 23, 2012. REUTERS/Alexander Demianchuk

The company logo at a Rosneft petrol station in St.Petersburg October 23, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Alexander Demianchuk

By Maya Dyakina

MOSCOW | Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:30am EDT

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Rosneft (ROSN.MM) shares rose to their highest in 15 months on Wednesday, gaining 5 percent on the day as investors anticipated a rise in valuations as a result of purchase to make it the world's top listed oil producer.

The state-controlled oil company has tightened its grip on Russia's oil industry, clinching a deal to buy Anglo-Russian TNK-BP that also makes Britain's BP (BP.L) a one-fifth shareholder in Rosneft.

"Rosneft moves to another league... Maybe it will be included in a global index and investors will not be able to ignore its shares," said Alexei Bachurin, the chief trader at Renaissance Capital.

The more liquid depositary receipts (ROSNq.L) gained 5.9 percent, following positive recommendations from investment banks. Bank of America Merrill Lynch saw a buying opportunity in Rosneft GDRs, expecting the price to rise to $9 per GDR. It was at around $7.50 on Wednesday.

"We believe that the benefits of the proposed deal outweigh potential risks," the bank's analysts wrote in a note.

Once the deal is closed, Rosneft would become the largest listed oil company, while keeping its dividend payout ratio at 25 percent of earnings. However, investors remain cautious over a hefty debt burden to finance the $55 billion takeover.

Rosneft shares were also lifted by government officials saying Britain's BP's involvement in the oil major will not cancel its privatization plans.

Rosneft's acquisition of TNK-BP (TNBP.MM) will give BP (BP.L), one-fifth of Rosneft's shares and two seats on the board.

"The possibility of further privatization remains," Economy Minister Andrei Belousov told a briefing on Wednesday.

Russian shares were mixed in jittery trading on Wednesday, with metal and mining shares outperforming the broad market, cheered by China's PMI data, while the rouble strengthened from four-week lows on higher oil prices.

The rouble-based MICEX traded up 0.2 percent at 1,458.0 points, while the dollar-denominated RTS index was up 0.5 percent at 1,464.6 points.

Metals and mining stocks stood out, with Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM) rising 0.9 percent and aluminum producer RUSAL (RUALR.MM) up 3.1 percent, reacting to an HSBC survey of Chinese manufacturing industry suggesting growth was recovering in the world's second largest economy.

Shares in TNK-BP Holding (TNBP.MM), a listed subsidiary that has a free float of around 5 percent, were up 2.4 after Tuesday's steep sell-off.

"We understand investors' concern: they can expect at least six months of uncertainty over Rosneft's stance toward them," analysts at Sberbank investment research wrote in a note.

Stronger commodity markets helped the rouble gain 0.2 percent to 31.39 against the dollar. Versus the euro, the rouble was up 0.3 percent at 40.64 and strengthened 0.2 percent to 35.55 versus its euro-dollar basket, the central bank's barometer of the currency market.

Russia's Finance Ministry failed to sell seven-year OFZ treasury bonds at an auction on Wednesday, as the initial yield guidance, set at 7.12-7.17 percent, was not attractive for investors.

"The yield guidance is below the market, as the bond closed at a 7.22-7.24 percent yield yesterday. We therefore do not expect to see material demand," analysts at VTB Capital wrote in a note before the auction.

(Additional reporting by Zlata Garasyuta, writing by Maya Dyakina, editing by Jason Bush/Jeremy Gaunt)

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